Your Worst Enemy at Casino: Gambler's Fallacy
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Posted On :
Jan-28-2011
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Article Word Count :
570
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Gambler's fallacy or also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy or the Fallacy of the Maturity of chances happens when an individual mistaken or assumed that a certain random event will happen again after an event or series of events. Like, if an X has happened, then the next X will not turn out as what the player has expected to occur, sure thing is that X will come to an end soon.
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Gambler's fallacy or also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy or the Fallacy of the Maturity of chances happens when an individual mistaken or assumed that a certain random event will happen again after an event or series of events. Like, if an X has happened, then the next X will not turn out as what the player has expected to occur, sure thing is that X will come to an end soon.
Well, that's quite hard to understand for some beginners, right? Then, lets set some examples. As the most popular one is the tossing of coin. You will k now if there's a Gambler's Fallacy when an individual too a coin and for ten consecutive tosses, it always turns out heads. But on the next flip, on the eleventh one, what would it be? Tail or Heads? Obviously, there are two answers, it might be heads or it might be tails.
First, heads as it can be because, it turns out to be heads on its 10 tosses. The odds can be on its favor that it will happen again. And second, tails on the eleventh flip for it turned out heads ten times, so the coin will go on the other side now. Whatever your answer is in this one, still they're both on sides of the gambler's fallacy.
Another example is in playing a roulette. If in an individual's last four spins on the wheel landed on black, he will assume that on the next spin, the ball is more likely to land on red. Which is not gonna like to happen because the roulette wheel has no memory and its on the player's mind to think and expect the next possible sequence of events to happen on a random events.
Finally, there's also an example of Gambler's Fallacy while playing a lottery. If a person play every time that there is a lottery draw and loses for ten years, he will probably think that after all his losses, on the eleventh year, he will win. That this year he is “due” to be a lottery winner.
Well, betting, casino games, online or not is a game of chance and a bit of lot. And there is no such thing a s “due” in this type of events. It doesn't mean that if an event doesn't happen for a long period of time, it will happen now. The Gambler's Fallacy shows us the human desire of finding some patterns a random process. People always tend to set methods on what might happen on the following act which is undoubtedly wrong for not all past events change the probability on what will happen next on the future.
So now that you know about the Gambler's Fallacy, I hope that you think of it and put this on your heart for your mind can always follow your instinct. And if one day, you found yourself playing a roulette for example, and the ball ended up on black eight times, and assume that on the next spin, it'll be red, think again before you bet. You, my friend is playing a random processed game. Before you bet, bet on what you think your heart desires and don not think of a pattern. And just enjoy the game. Without thinking of your worst enemy.
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Article Source :
http://www.articleseen.com/Article_Your Worst Enemy at Casino: Gambler's Fallacy_50424.aspx
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Author Resource :
The author, Quincy Block is fascinated about online casino. Because of that, she write articles for Online Casino Prime, a site that offers everything you have to know about online casino. It has reviews, updates, information about different bonuses and free games for everyone. Like slots, bingo, craps, poker, blackjack.. You name it. She also manages a blog that gives you the hottest
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Keywords :
Gambler's Fallacy, Monte Carlo Fallacy, Online Casino, Casino,
Category :
Recreation and Sports
:
Gambling and Casinos
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