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HK Pacific – Markets Drift Before US Jobs Numbers.
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Posted On :
Sep-19-2011
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Article Word Count :
458
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HK Pacific: The August non-farm payrolls data could be the push the Fed needs to launch QE3.
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HK Pacific: Equity markets around the world drifted in and out of gains as investors wait on the crucial US nonfarm payrolls data for August. The decision to deploy new tools, be it QE3 or other options, depends a lot on the all-important jobs data.
The data is being widely regarded as particularly important this month since it precedes the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at which the voting members will decide whether or not to begin a third program of asset purchases to help boost the US economic recovery.
The overall picture of the US economy is quite gloomy. Slowdowns were felt in many indicators: consumer confidence indicators, the disastrous Philly Fed Index and more figures. Some points of light were seen in retail sales and factory orders.
Analysts at HK Pacific remain divided on what to expect from the highly-anticipated meeting but they agree that a poor figure from the Labor Department will provide the impetus the Fed needs to justify adding more printed money to the economy.
“Investors aren’t really sure what to do; some of them are selling into what they perceive as strength because they think the Fed will hold fire on monetary easing whilst some are buying in the hope that another round of QE will lock in profits when equity values rise,” said a research analyst at “HK Pacific”.
The monthly U.S. labor market report is one of the most important economic releases for the U.S. economy. Jobs have long been the missing ingredient in the U.S. recovery and last month’s rebound in job growth was a relief because in May and June, the non-farm payrolls report was abysmally weak, leading many people to wonder whether job growth would soon turn into job losses. In August, economists expect payrolls to rise by 70k which is neither good nor bad. At 70k the Federal Reserve will still have to seriously consider more stimulus. The only way some form of QE3 would not happen is if job growth exceeded 150k. Given how off the economist forecasts have been, we cannot rule out a much stronger or weaker release.
As this publication is critical for QE3 (dollar printing), the dollar is eventually expected to eventually react in a normal way to this release – falling against all currencies – without separate reactions for “risk” and “safe” currencies. Currently the reactions generally go in this direction, but are very limited.
HK Pacific say they are staying out of the market until the jobs report Is published Friday 7.30am ET. “This is one of those times when trading volumes are anemic so relatively small orders can spike prices in any direction,” said the research analyst.
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Article Source :
http://www.articleseen.com/Article_HK Pacific – Markets Drift Before US Jobs Numbers._83323.aspx
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Author Resource :
http://www.hk-pacific.com
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Keywords :
HK Pacific, Hong Kong Pacific, HK-Pacific,
Category :
Arts and Entertainment
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Arts and Entertainment
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